Fantasy Baseball 2011 - 20 Games Down

Ah, what a season so far. Nothing earth shattering has happened, but at the current rate Andrew and I might be very pleased by the end of the season. We had our first trade of the season in the league, and Andrew and I are still trying to get over how bad it was. You can't have a good season without some controversy.

Andrew is busy at the moment building a monument to Jered Weaver. Weaver is 6-0 in 6 starts with 49K, an ERA of .99, and a .79 WHIP. You might say that he is having a good start to the season, and I would say that I'm annoyed that I wasn't more aggressive in bidding for him.

For the Baseball Gods so loved the world...

I wish I has someone to harp about on my team, but with Matt Kemp coming down to earth a bit I'm stuck just hoping Yovani Gallardo and Max Scherzer don't screw me over on a weekly basis. In the time it took me to start this post and get to this sentence Scherzer went from 5 shutout innings and 7K to 7IP and 5ER. Its going to be a long season for me... again. At least Matt Holliday is hitting .423 and looking fatter than ever.

Now for the trade. It was bad, it started out much worse, but after a league wide outcry it was watered down from complete shit to just flat our crap. The first form of the trade was Tim Lincecum and Wandy Rodriguez for Francisco Liriano and Gavin Floyd. Why you would give up Lincecum for a shit sandwich is beyond me, and we blocked it. Sadly it came back and was begrudgingly approved as Lincecum, Rodriguez, and Joba Chamberlain for Liriano, Floyd, and Ricky Nolasco. So now one team has Roy Halladay, Tim Lincecum, Clayton Kershaw, and Justin Verlander. This trade makes no sense no matter how I look at it.

Current Status
Bert - That rug really tied the room together, did it not?
Andrew - Way to go Donny!

Nike Finally Gets Something (Mostly) Right

After years of violating our visual senses, it looks like Nike has come up with something good. I'm hoping this spreads to other schools, but I'm not going to hold my breath hoping for something good at Oregon, Miami, or Virginia Tech. Nike's Pro Combat designs have been flat out horrible, and the three people that read this blog know how I feel about them. Nike seems to have broken away from the Pro Combat looks in creating Arizona States new uniforms, and I am delightfully surprised.

The 2010 edition. Horrible.

ASU had one of the worst uniform sets last year, mainly the maroon-on-maroon home look that makes me bleed internally. Nike has gone with a complete overhaul of the current look and added a black uniform set. They ditched the golden yellow piping, and most interestingly they dumped Sparky their long time logo/mascot. This is an obvious, and effective, attempt by Nike and ASU to bring a little more attention to their football program. If you google "Arizona State University" images you will quickly realize what the school is known for, and it isn't football.

A quick search for "Arizona State" yielded this, its the tamest one that came up.

The Good : I'm so happy they stuck with the traditional golden yellow and maroon colors, not a huge fan of maroon but considering the game of color hot potato they have been playing up in Eugene this is a plus. I don't have anything against Sparky, but the new helmet logo is great. I didn't come up with this, and if I could remember where I heard it I'd give them credit, but Sparky kinda looks like Walt Disney in a devil costume. The new trident logo is simple, relates to Sparky, and works really well as a helmet logo.

Sparky vs. new trident logo and ASU text.

I'm also happy they simplified the jersey and pants, getting rid of all piping and pants stripes. The addition of the trident shoulder striping is also a great move. Its similar to USC's shoulder stripes, which are a classic look, but with a modern twist. I'm not a huge fan of black uniforms if black isn't one of your school colors, but whatever. I'd feel better if they only used the black helmet and pants together with the white or maroon jersey, but I'm sure they will mix and match like Oregon. Also, I like the change to a Florida State style number font.

The 2011 edition. Very nice.

Bonus points for the tasteful Pat Tillman tribute on the collar. The marketing photos make the logo seem extremely prominent, but when you look at the players wearing them its very subtle.

The Almost Bad : My biggest gripe is with the ASU text on the shoulders. They just don't seem to fit in, I'm not sure if I can explain it. They look like Nike panicked because the uniforms look so different from previous years, so they needed something to let you know its Arizona State. I would have gone with numbers here like USC. I also have a long standing hatred for gradient numbers, which you see on the black jerseys.

Gradient numbers, my mortal enemy.

Overall this is a big win for Nike and Arizona State. Worst case scenario I go on to hate the ASU on the shoulders and best case scenario it helps the people of Tempe forget that their team sucks.

Fantasy Baseball 2011 - 10 Games Down

The season is well under way, and I'm going to try and make this short. I'd love to spend alot of time rehashing the first 10 games, but there are 152 left and its useless to freak out. If you had told me that Team A would be 10-4 and Team B would be 3-10 to start the season, and asked me to predict their seasons I would stare at you blankly. Just for the record, Team A is the Kansas City Royals and Team B is the Boston Red Sox. Do we really think KC will be that much better than Boston? No, lets all relax.

After a draft day meltdown Andrew is feeling much better. With the way Jered Weaver, Dan Haren, and Tommy Hanson have started the season he could be feeling good for a while. Hanson has been pretty good, but Weaver and Haren have won 6 of their 7 combined starts. Andrew is so lucky that Haren actually picked up a win in an epic 14 inning game where he came in and pitched a single inning. Weaver currently leads the majors in K's, so things are looking up for the defending champ. Andrew's biggest concern is Matt Thornton, who just can't save a game to save his life. The guy blew four consecutive saves, and may not get another chance.

Looks like one apple fell really far from the tree.

I'm trying to relax, but I have two very serious concerns on my team. I am getting murdered by Sean Rodriguez and Ben Zobrist of the Rays. Both guys are hitting under .200, and Rodriguez has been displaced by flavor-of-the-month Sam Fuld. If that wasn't bad enough Fuld went to Stanfurd! I'm even more annoyed because I have been firmly perched in the Top 3 (enjoying some time at the top) despite these clowns. My team would be awesome without them, but whatever. My team is freakishly piling up walks and my "worst buy", Matt Kemp, is fucking destroying the league. Kemp is hitting .440 at the moment, his 8 SB are leading the majors, and he looks to be on track for a 20+ homer season. I realize these will change, at this pace he would steal 86 bases, but its nice to have someone playing well.

Apparently breaking up with Rihanna makes you hit over .400

Current Status
Bert - The Dude abides.
Andrew - No, he's a sex offender. With a record.

Bundesliga : We Have Winner

Well after four months and alot of schadenfreude I think its safe to call a winner. I've definitely grown to enjoy the Bundesliga and cultivated my hate for Bayern Munich. I think its also nice that my dislike of Schalke has really matured right before they face Manchester United in the Champions League.

Borussia Dortmund : WIN! I'm a little conflicted because they may win the Bundesliga. I would hate to pick a team just because they won the league, but thankfully I'm drawn to more than that. They had an "insurmountable" lead at one point, but its shrunk to 5 points with 5 games to go. They only play one team in the top half of the table (Nurnberg, 6th) and get a game against relegation bound Borussia Monchengladbach. The team behind them (Bayer Leverkusen) has a tough game against Bayern Munich, so Dortmund should have the title in hand.

Is there a Japanese equivalent of schadenfreude?

I also have a small man crush on Shinji Kagawa, so I'm going to spend the summer very worried. I read that Liverpool's sponsor (Standard Chartered) wants them to buy an Asian player to boost marketing in Asia, very similar to what Manchester United has experienced with Park Ji-Sung. If Liverpool buy Kagawa, I'm going to be seriously upset.

Bayer Leverkusen : ELIMINATED. Pretty close 2nd. As the season has gone on I've grown to like Arturo Vidal. Prior to the season I had never heard of him, but he has put together a very solid season for Leverkusen with 9 goals and 8 assists (leads the team in both stats currently). I've also grown to like Renato Augusto, who is also having a good season for Leverkusen. Both guys are 23, so I'm sure they will be tormenting me for some time.

Eintracht Frankfurt : ELIMINATED. Very middle of the road team that has mainly provided me with some comedy. Their top scorer is Theofanis Gekas, a 30 year old Greek international, who has scored 16 goals for Frankfurt. The next highest scorer? Four players are tied at 2 goals. Frankfurt have scored a total of 29 goals, worst in the league, and Mr. Gekas has over half of them.

Kaisersluatern : ELIMINATED. Despite the prodding of my friend, I just didn't connect with these guys.

Werder Bremen : ELIMINATED. These guys were the heavy favorites to start the season, and all they managed to do was suck. Per Mertesacker missed alot of games with a serious facial injury, and then spent the rest of the season insisting that he wasn't going to be sold to Arsenal. They seemed really burned out when they were in the Champions League and did little to nothing to impress me. Their kits also make my eyes bleed.

VfL Wolfsburg : ELIMINATED. Currently in the relegation zone. Their top goalscorer (Edin Dzeko) hasn't been on the team in nearly four months. Their high profile coach has been fired. Unless the town of Wolfsburg bursts into flames I doubt things can get much worse.

Fantasy Baseball 2011 - Draft Autopsy

We have waited patiently for months, endured annoying Giants fans, reviewed our strategies, re-reviewed, compiled our spreadsheets, and now the wait is over. It's fantasy baseball season at the Sports Optimator, and as the first week of games goes by, it's time for the post draft autopsy. This year the draft was held after opening day, so we spent three days trying not to freak out about horrible starts (Jon Lester anyone?) and hot bats (Nelson Cruz, Ian Kinsler, anyone facing Boston...), which was not easy. In the end, neither of us got the team we planned for, but that may be a good thing for some, and not for others.

The Draft
Bert - I have a boring and fairly conservative draft strategy that changed a little this year. I'm not concerned with landing the best player, but this year I was very concerned with landing a top SS and 3B. The weakest positions this year are SS, 3B, and 2B, so if you don't get one of the top 2-3, it's a long way to the bottom. The top 2B's aren't nearly as good as SS (Hanley Ramirez, Troy Tulowitzki) or 3B (Evan Longoria, David Wright, Ryan Zimmerman) so I decided that I would come out with one of each or die trying. I retained my deep love for 20-20 players, mostly outfielders this year, and I didn't want to spend more than $1 on catchers or closers. I really, really, really wanted Prince Fielder this year. Fielder was #1 in BB (111) last year, he is 27 (statistically players tend to peak at 27) and it's a contract year, so he should have a monster season. I also decided not to spend money on a Top 5 pitcher and roll the dice with mid-range affordable arms, since pitching is so random and always screws me over. My draft calling card is feasting on mid-range players when everyone else has spent way too much for the top players; very dependable and low-risk, but lacks upside.

Andrew - I could delve into my draft strategy, but then I'd have to kill Bert. Oh, Bert knows all about my Teutonic devotion to value, and he knows about the great site, Last Player Picked, which I mostly rely on for said values, but one component of my draft preparation remains shrouded in secrecy. Just to live up to my reputation for insufferable arrogance, though, because I wouldn't want to disappoint anyone, I will say that since I implemented it two years ago it hasn't let me down. Two years, two championships. And, running counter to my actual (horrendous) start, and despite gifting Bert a few players, my projections have me finishing first again. Mwuahahahaa.

As an aside, I'm thinking Furor Teutonicus might be a good name for my team next year.

The Aftermath
Bert - Well, I almost completely abandoned my top priorities but it all worked out in the end. I think. Han-Ram and Tulo went for a lot; I wasn't willing to go much over $30 for Tulo and he went for $34, so I basically walked away from SS. Then my 2B target, Dustin Pedrioa, went for $24, which was basically $4 more than I was willing to pay for a 2B not named Dan Uggla. The draft Gods smiled upon me, though, when I was able to snag David Wright for $29, but then they cursed me by letting me get Matt Kemp for $28. I completely folded on Prince Fielder, and that is when the panic set in. Fielder went for $29, way more than I thought, and I just couldn't go to $30. No Tulo, no Fielder, and my only pitcher at this point was Yovani Gallardo. With a whole bunch of money left I was able to get Matt Holliday for a discount (appendectomies rule) and hoard 20-20 outfielders. I missed out on Cole Hamels, who went for $23, but I fell ass-backwards into Max Scherzer for $9. I was also able to take advantage of Andrew's late draft cash problems and walk away with Matt Cain ($15), Brett Anderson ($9), Johnathan Sanchez ($11), and Gio Gonzalez ($8). I must credit Andrew with a purchase I didn't plan to make; Carlos Santana. I avoided spending more than $30 on a player, and went with a budget pitching staff, so when Santana could be had for $12, Andrew goaded me into it. With the depth at 2B/SS I decided to invest in a catcher and pay $1 for a warm body at the end of the draft. After having a heart attack to start the draft, I finished with a team that should finish in the Top 3.

C - Carlos Santana (CLE)
C - Carlos Ruiz (PHI)
1B - Kevin Youkilis (BOS)
2B - Ben Zobrist (TB)
SS - Derek Jeter (NYY, may the baseball gods forgive me...)
3B - David Wright (NYM)
OF - Matt Kemp (LAD)
OF - Matt Holliday (STL)
OF - Alex Rios (CHW)
OF - Henter Pence (HOU)
OF - Bobby Abreu (LAA)
1B/3B - Paul Konerko (CHW)
2B/SS - Sean Rodriguez (TB, this is my $1 warm body.)
UTIL - David Ortiz (BOS, I had to get BB since I missed out on Fielder.)

P - Yovani Gallardo (MIL)
P - Roy Oswalt (PHI)
P - Matt Cain (SF)
P - Max Scherzer (DET)
P - Brett Anderson (OAK)
P - Johnathan Sanchez (SF)
P - Gio Gonzalez (OAK)
P - Leo Nunez (FLA)
P - Kevin Gregg (BAL)

The usual suspects. Six guys back from a 4th place team that imploded down the stretch, what could possibly go wrong?

Best Buy - Max Scherzer ($9) - if he has a good year, $9 is a bargain.
Worst Buy - Matt Kemp ($28) - Shin-Soo Choo went for $19.

30-30 season or an expensive pain in the ass. Time will tell.

Andrew - It was a weird draft. Every year, most people in our league, aside from the two of us, prematurely ejaculate over basically anyone that you throw out there. A few years ago we even had Derek Jeter go for $37. $37! This year was no different, in fact I think it was worse than usual, and for the first round and a half, any top-20 player was going for $35+. Bert and I were sitting there, incredulously shocked, appalled, and happy at our good fortune, as each team's budget was effectively destroyed on one player. One factor in play, we think, is that our league tracks BBs instead of runs, and most price guides are based on runs scored. So Bert and I throw big runs-scored guys out there like Crawford and Cano and watch the feeding frenzy ensue.

Anyway, at some point in the draft, maybe when Pujols went for $43 - $5 under value - or maybe when Mauer went for $23 - another $5-off discount, people seemed to readjust to their dwindling coffers, and the draft got weird. You would think this would be a great time for people with extra cash to move in and feast, and you would be half-right. Bert, aside from blowing his wad on Matt Kemp, regained some self control and dignity and drafted pretty well from there on out. I, on the other hand, was too inflexible, too committed to getting certain targeted guys, meaning I overpaid for a few guys (hellooo, Victor Martinez), and let too many other guys go for too little. And, most inexcusable of all, I ended up with $8 left in the bank. What? This has never happened to me before, and it makes me very, very nervous. It makes me even more nervous when the other three teams that I've projected to finish in the top four are occupying the top three, and as this is being written, I'm struggling to move out of dead last. Yeah, yeah, yeah, the season's a marathon and it's only week one, but still.

C - Victor Martinez (DET) - Good average and decent power, but would it kill him to walk a little more?
C - Brian McCann (ATL) - I've had this guy every year since I can remember. So solid, so consistent.
1B - Joey Votto (CIN) - The poor man's Pujols. This year he could be even better. Fair value at $36.
2B - Dan Uggla (ATL) - I've also owned Uggla a lot, and he's never let me down. Well worth the $21.
SS - Stephen Drew (ARI) - His numbers say he's underrated; I remain unconvinced but hopeful.
3B - Casey McGehee (MIL) - If his numbers continue on their upward trajectory, a steal for $1. If.
OF - Jayson Werth (WAS) - I don't love this pick. Washington's park is not exactly a hitter's paradise.
OF - Shin Soo-Choo (CLE) - Great player, but I paid nearly full value for him.

OF - Jason Kubel (MIN) - Where my draft started to go downhill. Kubel is not a poor man's Swisher.

OF - Jason Bay (NYM) - Massive upside, minimal risk for $1, if he's not permanently concussed.

OF - Lance Berkman (STL) - Scares the bejeesus out of me. If I get 87 BBs and 18 HR I'll take it.

CI - Billy Butler (KC) - Numbers are going up across the board. I love him for $9.
2B - Howie Kendrick (LAA) - I had to pony up $9 for him, but he hit 41 2Bs in '10. Optimistic.
UTIL - Adam LaRoche - Still flying under the radar. I expect 25 HRs and 85+ RBIs. No BBs, though.

P - Dan Haren (LAA) - I'm counting on the aberration of 2010's first half to vanish like snow before the sun.

P - Tommy Hanson (ATL) - Not enough years stats to make me comfortable. Plus never trust a ginger.

P - Ted Lilly (LAD) - I hate this guy's face and his Cub background, but for $6 could I go wrong? So far, yes.

P - Zach Greinke (MIL) - Banking on his rib injury to unlock some deep value for $14.

P - Jered Weaver (LAA) - Thinking that his K numbers from '10 are not a fluke. Early numbers are backing me up.

P - Chris Carpenter (STL) - So good, so fragile, and he pitches to contact. Cain for $16 would've been better.

P - Javier Vazquez (FLA) - Hold my nose and pray for the Ks to come back. Florida's park can't hurt. Right?

P - Dallas Braden (OAK) - Don't win, don't strike guys out - what do you do? Oh, well, decent ERA and WHIP.

P - Chris Perez (CLE) - 30+ saves for $2. I'll take it.

I choo-choo-choose you!

Best Buy - Based on projected numbers, Ted Lilly went for $13 less than he should have, but if Bay comes back to hit ~22 HRs and walks 80 times, he's the steal of the draft for me, maybe the league.
Worst Buy - V-Mart ($23) when I probably could've had Mauer for $25. Bollocks.

For me, the draft is mostly based on projected numbers relative to projected value, and then the real season starts. Right now, it's ugly. No strikeouts, low wins, horrible WHIP, and a laughably low RBI total despite top-3 HRs. My team must be channeling the Cardinals, who scored less runs in their first 9 games than all other iterations of their team since 1919. They suck. They and their clueless manager will continue to suck. 10 days in, and I am more panicked than Ryan Franklin on the mound in the ninth.

Hindsight Is 20/20

Worst Buy Overall - This is tough, but I'm going to have to say Joba Chamberlain ($7). One of the worst things you can do in our league is buy a non-closer relief pitcher, and someone paid $7 for one! The next worst would be Manny Ramirez for $4, but the buyer had no way to know he would get busted for doping and retire suddenly.

The numbers back up Bert's pick - the buyer overpaid by $21! Ha!

Best Buy - Jaime Garcia ($3). If Garcia's arm doesn't fall off this could be the bargain of the draft; he was excellent last year before being shut down.

I'm still (optimistically) nominating Jason Bay, but it's not an overly confident pick.

Massive Upside - Josh Johnson ($14) / Max Scherzer ($9). Johnson pitched like a Top 5 pitcher last year before an injury ended his season, but he still has a serious injury concern this year. He has already pitched well, so it's entirely possible he stays healthy and competes for the NL Cy Young. Scherzer is unproven, but finished so well after coming up from a stint in the minors last season that everyone has been saying he has Top 10 upside.

Jason Bay ($1) Bay, Bay, Bay. If I repeat his name like a mantra for the next ten days, will my horrifically low RBI numbers bounce back?

Current Status
Bert - The Dude abides.
Andrew - Nothing is fucked?! The God damn plane has crashed into the mountain!