Fantasy Baseball 2011 - Draft Autopsy

We have waited patiently for months, endured annoying Giants fans, reviewed our strategies, re-reviewed, compiled our spreadsheets, and now the wait is over. It's fantasy baseball season at the Sports Optimator, and as the first week of games goes by, it's time for the post draft autopsy. This year the draft was held after opening day, so we spent three days trying not to freak out about horrible starts (Jon Lester anyone?) and hot bats (Nelson Cruz, Ian Kinsler, anyone facing Boston...), which was not easy. In the end, neither of us got the team we planned for, but that may be a good thing for some, and not for others.

The Draft
Bert - I have a boring and fairly conservative draft strategy that changed a little this year. I'm not concerned with landing the best player, but this year I was very concerned with landing a top SS and 3B. The weakest positions this year are SS, 3B, and 2B, so if you don't get one of the top 2-3, it's a long way to the bottom. The top 2B's aren't nearly as good as SS (Hanley Ramirez, Troy Tulowitzki) or 3B (Evan Longoria, David Wright, Ryan Zimmerman) so I decided that I would come out with one of each or die trying. I retained my deep love for 20-20 players, mostly outfielders this year, and I didn't want to spend more than $1 on catchers or closers. I really, really, really wanted Prince Fielder this year. Fielder was #1 in BB (111) last year, he is 27 (statistically players tend to peak at 27) and it's a contract year, so he should have a monster season. I also decided not to spend money on a Top 5 pitcher and roll the dice with mid-range affordable arms, since pitching is so random and always screws me over. My draft calling card is feasting on mid-range players when everyone else has spent way too much for the top players; very dependable and low-risk, but lacks upside.

Andrew - I could delve into my draft strategy, but then I'd have to kill Bert. Oh, Bert knows all about my Teutonic devotion to value, and he knows about the great site, Last Player Picked, which I mostly rely on for said values, but one component of my draft preparation remains shrouded in secrecy. Just to live up to my reputation for insufferable arrogance, though, because I wouldn't want to disappoint anyone, I will say that since I implemented it two years ago it hasn't let me down. Two years, two championships. And, running counter to my actual (horrendous) start, and despite gifting Bert a few players, my projections have me finishing first again. Mwuahahahaa.

As an aside, I'm thinking Furor Teutonicus might be a good name for my team next year.

The Aftermath
Bert - Well, I almost completely abandoned my top priorities but it all worked out in the end. I think. Han-Ram and Tulo went for a lot; I wasn't willing to go much over $30 for Tulo and he went for $34, so I basically walked away from SS. Then my 2B target, Dustin Pedrioa, went for $24, which was basically $4 more than I was willing to pay for a 2B not named Dan Uggla. The draft Gods smiled upon me, though, when I was able to snag David Wright for $29, but then they cursed me by letting me get Matt Kemp for $28. I completely folded on Prince Fielder, and that is when the panic set in. Fielder went for $29, way more than I thought, and I just couldn't go to $30. No Tulo, no Fielder, and my only pitcher at this point was Yovani Gallardo. With a whole bunch of money left I was able to get Matt Holliday for a discount (appendectomies rule) and hoard 20-20 outfielders. I missed out on Cole Hamels, who went for $23, but I fell ass-backwards into Max Scherzer for $9. I was also able to take advantage of Andrew's late draft cash problems and walk away with Matt Cain ($15), Brett Anderson ($9), Johnathan Sanchez ($11), and Gio Gonzalez ($8). I must credit Andrew with a purchase I didn't plan to make; Carlos Santana. I avoided spending more than $30 on a player, and went with a budget pitching staff, so when Santana could be had for $12, Andrew goaded me into it. With the depth at 2B/SS I decided to invest in a catcher and pay $1 for a warm body at the end of the draft. After having a heart attack to start the draft, I finished with a team that should finish in the Top 3.

C - Carlos Santana (CLE)
C - Carlos Ruiz (PHI)
1B - Kevin Youkilis (BOS)
2B - Ben Zobrist (TB)
SS - Derek Jeter (NYY, may the baseball gods forgive me...)
3B - David Wright (NYM)
OF - Matt Kemp (LAD)
OF - Matt Holliday (STL)
OF - Alex Rios (CHW)
OF - Henter Pence (HOU)
OF - Bobby Abreu (LAA)
1B/3B - Paul Konerko (CHW)
2B/SS - Sean Rodriguez (TB, this is my $1 warm body.)
UTIL - David Ortiz (BOS, I had to get BB since I missed out on Fielder.)

P - Yovani Gallardo (MIL)
P - Roy Oswalt (PHI)
P - Matt Cain (SF)
P - Max Scherzer (DET)
P - Brett Anderson (OAK)
P - Johnathan Sanchez (SF)
P - Gio Gonzalez (OAK)
P - Leo Nunez (FLA)
P - Kevin Gregg (BAL)

The usual suspects. Six guys back from a 4th place team that imploded down the stretch, what could possibly go wrong?

Best Buy - Max Scherzer ($9) - if he has a good year, $9 is a bargain.
Worst Buy - Matt Kemp ($28) - Shin-Soo Choo went for $19.

30-30 season or an expensive pain in the ass. Time will tell.

Andrew - It was a weird draft. Every year, most people in our league, aside from the two of us, prematurely ejaculate over basically anyone that you throw out there. A few years ago we even had Derek Jeter go for $37. $37! This year was no different, in fact I think it was worse than usual, and for the first round and a half, any top-20 player was going for $35+. Bert and I were sitting there, incredulously shocked, appalled, and happy at our good fortune, as each team's budget was effectively destroyed on one player. One factor in play, we think, is that our league tracks BBs instead of runs, and most price guides are based on runs scored. So Bert and I throw big runs-scored guys out there like Crawford and Cano and watch the feeding frenzy ensue.

Anyway, at some point in the draft, maybe when Pujols went for $43 - $5 under value - or maybe when Mauer went for $23 - another $5-off discount, people seemed to readjust to their dwindling coffers, and the draft got weird. You would think this would be a great time for people with extra cash to move in and feast, and you would be half-right. Bert, aside from blowing his wad on Matt Kemp, regained some self control and dignity and drafted pretty well from there on out. I, on the other hand, was too inflexible, too committed to getting certain targeted guys, meaning I overpaid for a few guys (hellooo, Victor Martinez), and let too many other guys go for too little. And, most inexcusable of all, I ended up with $8 left in the bank. What? This has never happened to me before, and it makes me very, very nervous. It makes me even more nervous when the other three teams that I've projected to finish in the top four are occupying the top three, and as this is being written, I'm struggling to move out of dead last. Yeah, yeah, yeah, the season's a marathon and it's only week one, but still.

C - Victor Martinez (DET) - Good average and decent power, but would it kill him to walk a little more?
C - Brian McCann (ATL) - I've had this guy every year since I can remember. So solid, so consistent.
1B - Joey Votto (CIN) - The poor man's Pujols. This year he could be even better. Fair value at $36.
2B - Dan Uggla (ATL) - I've also owned Uggla a lot, and he's never let me down. Well worth the $21.
SS - Stephen Drew (ARI) - His numbers say he's underrated; I remain unconvinced but hopeful.
3B - Casey McGehee (MIL) - If his numbers continue on their upward trajectory, a steal for $1. If.
OF - Jayson Werth (WAS) - I don't love this pick. Washington's park is not exactly a hitter's paradise.
OF - Shin Soo-Choo (CLE) - Great player, but I paid nearly full value for him.

OF - Jason Kubel (MIN) - Where my draft started to go downhill. Kubel is not a poor man's Swisher.

OF - Jason Bay (NYM) - Massive upside, minimal risk for $1, if he's not permanently concussed.

OF - Lance Berkman (STL) - Scares the bejeesus out of me. If I get 87 BBs and 18 HR I'll take it.

CI - Billy Butler (KC) - Numbers are going up across the board. I love him for $9.
2B - Howie Kendrick (LAA) - I had to pony up $9 for him, but he hit 41 2Bs in '10. Optimistic.
UTIL - Adam LaRoche - Still flying under the radar. I expect 25 HRs and 85+ RBIs. No BBs, though.

P - Dan Haren (LAA) - I'm counting on the aberration of 2010's first half to vanish like snow before the sun.

P - Tommy Hanson (ATL) - Not enough years stats to make me comfortable. Plus never trust a ginger.

P - Ted Lilly (LAD) - I hate this guy's face and his Cub background, but for $6 could I go wrong? So far, yes.

P - Zach Greinke (MIL) - Banking on his rib injury to unlock some deep value for $14.

P - Jered Weaver (LAA) - Thinking that his K numbers from '10 are not a fluke. Early numbers are backing me up.

P - Chris Carpenter (STL) - So good, so fragile, and he pitches to contact. Cain for $16 would've been better.

P - Javier Vazquez (FLA) - Hold my nose and pray for the Ks to come back. Florida's park can't hurt. Right?

P - Dallas Braden (OAK) - Don't win, don't strike guys out - what do you do? Oh, well, decent ERA and WHIP.

P - Chris Perez (CLE) - 30+ saves for $2. I'll take it.

I choo-choo-choose you!

Best Buy - Based on projected numbers, Ted Lilly went for $13 less than he should have, but if Bay comes back to hit ~22 HRs and walks 80 times, he's the steal of the draft for me, maybe the league.
Worst Buy - V-Mart ($23) when I probably could've had Mauer for $25. Bollocks.

For me, the draft is mostly based on projected numbers relative to projected value, and then the real season starts. Right now, it's ugly. No strikeouts, low wins, horrible WHIP, and a laughably low RBI total despite top-3 HRs. My team must be channeling the Cardinals, who scored less runs in their first 9 games than all other iterations of their team since 1919. They suck. They and their clueless manager will continue to suck. 10 days in, and I am more panicked than Ryan Franklin on the mound in the ninth.

Hindsight Is 20/20

Worst Buy Overall - This is tough, but I'm going to have to say Joba Chamberlain ($7). One of the worst things you can do in our league is buy a non-closer relief pitcher, and someone paid $7 for one! The next worst would be Manny Ramirez for $4, but the buyer had no way to know he would get busted for doping and retire suddenly.

The numbers back up Bert's pick - the buyer overpaid by $21! Ha!

Best Buy - Jaime Garcia ($3). If Garcia's arm doesn't fall off this could be the bargain of the draft; he was excellent last year before being shut down.

I'm still (optimistically) nominating Jason Bay, but it's not an overly confident pick.

Massive Upside - Josh Johnson ($14) / Max Scherzer ($9). Johnson pitched like a Top 5 pitcher last year before an injury ended his season, but he still has a serious injury concern this year. He has already pitched well, so it's entirely possible he stays healthy and competes for the NL Cy Young. Scherzer is unproven, but finished so well after coming up from a stint in the minors last season that everyone has been saying he has Top 10 upside.

Jason Bay ($1) Bay, Bay, Bay. If I repeat his name like a mantra for the next ten days, will my horrifically low RBI numbers bounce back?

Current Status
Bert - The Dude abides.
Andrew - Nothing is fucked?! The God damn plane has crashed into the mountain!