Fantasy Baseball 2010 - A Cautionary Tale

So unlike my friend, I was a spectacular failure in our 2009 league. No, I didn't finish dead last or spend $45 on Carlos Beltran, but considering how "well" I drafted for a first timer I was beset by tragedy before we ever left the war room. I failed miserably for a few reasons, some were out of my control and some were all my fault *cough* Brad Lidge *cough*, but the best thing that came out of it was knowing what not to do. I'm no Talented Mr. Roto, but I ask you to read on and heed my cautionary tale.

So our league is challenging because we have two catcher slots and no bench, so you can't stash someone away until they get better. Its also odd because we use BB instead of runs, so that throws traditional player ratings out the window. With all the usual stats (BA, HR, RBI, SB, W, K, ERA, SV, WHIP) still in place, the use of BB takes a guy like Ichiro Suzuki and makes him almost useless, Michael Bourn? Don't even ask. You may like steals, but everything else is going to kill you (Disclaimer : Bourn actually hit pretty well, but .285 isn't going to make up for the puny stats) and your team is going to sink fast. On the flip side, guys like Nick Swisher and Jack Cust suddenly become very valuable since they tend to walk alot. Three True Outcome (K, HR, BB) studs are suddenly a good pick because walks are scarce, check out the stats. Only five players walked 100 or more times, and only one (almost three) hit over .300 (Pujols, of course), compared to 28 players that drove in 100 or more runs. So without further delay here is everything I learned after crashing and burning.

Draft Results
C Yadier Molina (StL)
C Ryan Doumit (PIT)
1B Adrian Gonzalez (SD)
2B Chase Utley (PHI)
3B Aubrey Huff (BAL)
SS Jhonny Peralta (CLE)
1B/3B Joey Votto (CIN)
2B/SS Jose Lopez (SEA)
OF Jermaine Dye (CWS)
OF Bobby Abreu (LAA)
OF Raul Ibanez (PHI)
OF Nick Markakis (BAL)
OF Shane Victorino (PHI)
UTIL Aramis Ramirez (CHI)
P Johan Santana (NYM)
P Jon Lester (BOS)
P Mark Buerhle (CWS)
P Edinson Volquez (CIN)
P Ricky Nolasco (FLA)
P Daisuke Matsuzaka (BOS)
P Brad Lidge (PHI)
P Brad Zielger (OAK)
P Frank Francisco (TEX)

I'm not going to go over every single player, but I was pretty pleased. I had some solid pitching, hitting depth, the best 2B, and I hit a homerun with some of my picks (Gonzalez, Abreu, Ibanez, Lester, Buerhle) and as soon as Doumit went down I snagged Pablo Sandoval (I tried drafting him for $1, but he wasn't C eligible yet) who was a huge add. So where did I go wrong, well let me tell you...

Keys To Failure
1 - Don't Pay For Saves : I went into the draft using the wisdom of Fight Club "The first rule of drafting is, you do not pay for saves. The second rule of drafting is you DO NOT pay for saves." Sadly, I paid, and it killed me. As an auction virgin, I started throwing out closers to get others to pay for them, and when Lidge was going to go for less than the value I had for him, I could feel my budget burning a hole in my pocket. I let the idea that someone else was going to get a deal get to me, and I started bidding, and bidding, and bidding. Eventually I got him for a whopping $14, which was pretty close to his WHIP last year. Lidge morphed into a BP machine and he just murdered me, that money could have been spent elsewhere.
2 - The Season Is 162 Games : Its a marathon, not a sprint. I basically had to talk Andrew off a ledge after the first few weeks. I'm such a weak person, when he begged me to take Verlander off his hands I talked him into waiting it out. That worked out well, for him. I didn't listen to my own advice, and I jettisoned Victorino within three weeks when he wasn't hitting or stealing. Suddenly, I found myself hoping Abreu would steal 70 because I just ruined the entire category for the season. You HAVE to draft speed, its extremely rare to land a Rajai Davis or a Dexter Fowler off waivers, so if you don't draft speed you might as well forget about it. So I basically screwed myself over in the first month of the season.
3 - Luck Is A Bitch : This is the last thing that killed me, and frankly I may have finished in the money if the world didn't hate me. I only drafted three players that really fell flat (Peralta, Lidge, and Nolasco), but injuries destroyed me. Hardcore fans will look at my roster and wince, but the casual fan might like to know that eight, EIGHT, of the players I drafted (Six of them pitchers!) spent most of the season on the DL with the WEIRDEST ailments. I had two season ending elbow injuries, elbow fatigue (Dice-K throws 400 pitches during warm-ups, who knew it would ruin his arm), depression, dislocated shoulder, and Ziegler managed to get SARS or something. I was waiting for a comet to hit Lester. If all of that wasn't bad enough two of my waiver pick-ups (Dallas Braden and Scott Richmond) went on the IR as well! I had guys on my roster for guys on the IR, who were on for guys on the IR! So what I'm saying is, shit happens and there is nothing you can do it about it. Have a nice day.

PUJOLS : LIDGE as LIDGE : MY 2009 FANTASY TEAM. Much like that HR, I'm still waiting for my WHIP and ERA to come down.

Keys To Success (From A Failure)
1 - Don't Pay For Saves : Yes, its that big of a deal that I'm bringing it up twice. I won't beat you over the head with stats, but saves are just one category. Plus, most closers will only pitch 55-75 innings, so their low WHIP/ERA is semi-negated and not enough to save your staff. Guys you can get for $1 will give you 25-30 saves, almost as much as Papelbon who will go for $12-15. Every season someone comes out of nowhere (Oakland's Andrew Bailey, for example), replaces a do-nothing closer, and has a stellar season. Joey Devine and Brad Zielger went down, and Bailey came in to become a Top-10 closer. I could have had him for $1. I was able to get SF's Brian Wilson (38 saves, T-7 with Papelbon), who went undrafted, for nothing off waivers. The $14 I spent on Lidge could have been Hanley Ramirez, as I dropped out as one of the final bidders, hell it could have been alot of players. Just don't pay for saves, unless you are in my league, if you find yourself in my league I encourage you to spend every penny you have to get Johnathan Broxton.
2 - Power/Speed Guys : One of the best ways to win your league is jump on power/speed guys (20-20, 30-30 players) because they give you balance and depth. Yes, a 30-30 guy won't have more steals than Jacoby Ellsbury, but Ellbury won't hit 30 homers and come anywhere close to 100 RBI. Piling up on power/speed players allows you to avoid using roster space on a one-dimensional base stealer or HR hitter (Mike Jacobs, etc.) who is going to kill your team with BA or miniscule RBI/BB. These guys are rare, so if you corner the market you will not be disappointed.
3 - Win In The Late Rounds : Its not a secret, any Fantasy Baseball guru will tell you, leagues are won in the late rounds. Getting Pujols won't make or break your class, but landing that $1 stud will give you a huge boost. Past examples of this are 2008 Ryan Ludwick (37-113 .299), 2009 Jayson Werth (36-99-20 .268), and 2009 Pablo Sandoval (25-90 .330), all guys that went late and were well worth the investment. So spend more time researching your late round picks, and don't worry if you don't get Pujols or Han-Ram.

Well, hopefully you have learned something from my implosion. I would like to think I won't be too drunk/angry/depressed after the draft to write a summary, and more importantly I'd like to avoid post-draft depression. I know I won't be bidding on Lidge no matter how much of a deal he is, unless I can bid -$5 he will not be on my roster.