The EPL Final Stretch, Advantage Arsenal

As the EPL wraps up for the week two things have become apparent; the title race is very exciting, and the battle for fourth is going to be close. The title is going to come down to either Manchester United (My team, Glory Glory), Arsenal, and Chelsea (There aren’t enough expletives to describe them) who currently have a game in hand. The gap between third (Arsenal) and fourth (Tottenham) is currently 12 points, so unless the Emirates falls into a black hole with the team on the pitch, nobody is going to crack the current top 3. So with less than 10 games left, and the media riding the Chelsea and United bandwagon, I’m going to say that Arsenal has the advantage here with the best chance at taking the title.

No, this is not a reverse jinx. If it was, I wouldn’t be able to say so, but it really isn’t. I’ve got three good reasons to believe Arsenal has the inside track, and if they don’t falter it could be their title to lose in the last few weeks.

1 - Arsenal has already played their games against the other Big 4 opponents. Despite losing to Manchester United and Chelsea twice they are just two points from the top. They don’t have to worry about playing anyone in title contention, and after pulling one out against Hull City they look like they have the momentum to keep playing well.

2 - Schedule. This is similar to #1, but I’m going to make it a reason because I like looking at stats. Chelsea and United are in a bad position regarding schedules, mainly because they play each other, but also because they will play more difficult opponents. Man U has the worst schedule (Average Opponent Position of 8.4), facing Chelsea (2) and Liverpool (6) at Old Trafford, and a derby game against rivals Manchester City (5) who would LOVE to crap on them like they did at Chelsea. Chelsea (Average Opponent Position of 9.8) have a game in hand, but they also have an extra road game (where they have been less than impressive), and travel to Man U (1), Tottenham (4) and Liverpool (6)…Ouch. Their only banker is a road game against the corpse of Portsmouth. Arsenal (Average Opponent Position of 10.9) doesn’t have a cake walk either with games at Nottingham (4) and Birmingham (8), and a home game against Man City (5) to close out their top-10 opponents. If Arsenal can close out the season on current form, it isn’t unreasonable to think United and Chelsea will shoot themselves in the foot and end up behind Arsenal.

3 - The Ewing Theory. I’m going to rob this one from Bill Simmons, but it’s a valid point. When Van Persie went down you could hear Arsenal fans dying a little inside, and people saying their offense wouldn’t be the same with a 5’ tall Russian trying to head corners, well they worked something out. They have been suffering injuries all over the place, including the brutal Eduardo-esque Ramsey broken leg incident, but they worked through it. No Fabregas? That’s ok, torch Porto 5-0. Still no Fabregas, and take away Gallas? That’s ok, Nicklas Bendtner will run like a drunken donkey and provide the offense they need. I’m waiting for Wenger to field Arsenal fans he picks up in the parking lot before the game, and at this rate they will still win.

Bendtner has four goals in their last two games, all of them with Fabregas on the bench.

So after looking at everything, I truly believe Arsenal have the inside track here. Wenger is a great coach who deserves to silence his critics with some silverware, and I predict this will be the season he does it. The only negative I could find is Arshavin’s new haircut, that bowl-cut was the heart and soul of their offense.