Monday, April 26, 2010

Fantasy Baseball, 20 Games Down

What a difference 10 games can make for everyone but me. I continue chanting calmly to myself to maintain my state of zen, who knows how long that will last though. I'm certainly not ready to do anything radical, but my hand is hovering over the panic button (I'm looking at you Frank Francisco) ready to make a move.

Andrew has traded in his noose for some optimism and ill will towards the just released Jason Frasor. Riding high on the not-so-surprising resurgences of Brad Penny and Francisco Liriano (who looks amazing so far) has pulled Andrew out of the cellar and left it all to me. The limp arms of Rich Harden, Rick Porcello, and Frank Francisco have assured my place at the bottom of the league. It doesn't help that my "studs" are pitching like 4th graders (Jon Lester) or on the DL (Cliff Lee), and I'm basically relying on Brett Anderson and Justin Duchsherer to carry me through the month.

Andrew is also enjoying some luck at the plate with Kelly Johnson crushing the ball (7HR, he had 12 & 16 in 500+ AB in '08 & '07) and some overall offensive balance. I am still waiting for my extremely deep offense to wake up... at all... even a little. I'm basically suffering from a team wide slow start, but I'm totally relaxed and at ease. I swear, really! I think I have to show an enormous amount of patience after getting Justin Upton for Raul Ibanez before the season started, I mean... how lucky is that?!

Current Status
Bert - "Look, nothing is fucked, here, man."
Andrew - "Nihilists! Fuck me. I mean, say what you like about the tenets of National Socialism, Dude, at least it's an ethos."

Thursday, April 15, 2010

Fantasy Baseball, 10 Games Down... 152 To Go

The season is 10 games old, and I already have heartburn. I'm not freaking out over my team, but I may have to write a retraction to our Draft Best/Worst. That post seems to have turned into a massive reverse jinx, but I'm going to give it a few more weeks,. I'd really like to avoid a public apology to Vernon Wells.

I'm eating some serious crow right now, mainly over Wells, but I've managed to ruin the first 6.1% of the season for Chipper Jones (Injury concerns, and hitting .150), Brad Hawpe (Quad injury), and my Man Crush Jacoby Ellsbury (Bruised ribs in collision with teammate). Wells opened the season crushing the ball with 5HR, 10RBI, 7BB and a decent .343 average... apparently calling him a con artist was a better motivational tool than his $4.6 million salary. Things are already looking good for me since he dropped a serious 1/10 stink bomb (no HR or RBI) at Baltimore after hitting 4HR's and drove in 7RBI in the first three games of the season (All at Texas' super hitter friendly park). As if that wasn't bad enough Rickie Weeks isn't playing like crap (2HR, 7RBI, 7BB and hitting .333), but we all know that will change.

I'm trying to be very relaxed, I'm going to wait until next month before I freak out. Some people *cough* Andrew *cough* are ready to hang themselves. On one level I think he is overreacting, but on another level he is getting slammed by the Baseball Gods. In only 10 games the following plagues have decended his team; Jack Cust sent down to minors, Brian Roberts on the DL, and injury concerns for Andre Ethier, Jayson Werth, and Brad Hawpe. If only it stopped there... Mike Napoli isn't starting anymore, and Jason Frasor (his only closer) has lost his job. If he wasn't 7th (only 1.5 points behind me) I'd say it couldn't get much worse, but lets face it, it can get worse. Much worse.

Current Status
Bert - "The Dude abides."
Andrew - "Nothing is fucked?! The God damn plane has crashed into the mountain!"

Wednesday, April 7, 2010

Umpires are softies

Check out this great article/data set on the fickle and sympathetic nature of umpires.

Sunday, April 4, 2010

MLB 2010 Season Preview

With the first pitch of the 2010 season less than 30 minutes away, we thought we would throw out our season preview for 2010. The story of 2010 will be the Yankees unstoppable run to their 300th title, all of them well deserved an untainted by the foul state of the league. The season is somewhat devoid of major storylines, but that won't stop us from being interested in every minor detail in the coming months.

We wouldn't be able to call ourselves budding pundits without putting out our predictions, so we present the dual opinions of the Sports Optimator.

Division and Playoff Predictions
AL East
Bert : NY Yankees. The Yankees are extremely loaded, defending champs, and they spent the offseason throwing money around and improving their roster. Curtis Granderson instead of Johnny 'Judas' Damon is a big boost, and Javier Vasquez is a workhorse who will provide a cushion for the looming AJ Burnett stink-bomb.
Andrew : NY Yankees. Girardi's a great manager, their rotation is solid, and they have fantasy secret weapon Nick Swisher on their team; this is an easy pick.

AL Central
Bert : Minnesota Twins. Minnesota improved, the Tigers swapped Granderson for Damon, and the White Sox are a question mark for me. The White Sox have alot of upside with Jake Peavy/Mark Buerhle/John Danks in the rotation, plus the additions of Juan Pierre, Mark Teahen, and a full season of Alex Rios and Gordon Beckham could make them contenders for the AL Central. Despite everything I just said I still think the vanilla Twins will pull this one out, Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau should provide enough fireworks to protect their nameless rotation, and I'm crossing my fingers we get at least a glimpse of 2006 Francisco Liriano. I think the loss of Nathan will hurt, but not enough to unseat them.
Andrew : Chicago White Sox. Everything that Bert says is enough to sway me to them. Although, since I drafted Liriano for a dollar, I should really be pulling for the Twinkies.

AL West
Bert : LA Angels. I really want to pick the Rangers to win the AL East, but its hard not to pick the Angels here. The Angels lose the corpse of Vladimir Guererro to the Rangers, but the addition of Hideki Matsui should make that a wash. The Rangers are improving on the mound, but the Angels are already where the Rangers should be a few years from now, plus I just can't pick a team that lists Rich Harden as their ace. The Rangers should score, Ian Kinsler and Michael Young are solid, and if Josh Hamilton and Chris Davis live up to the hype the Rangers could be even more dangerous on offense. Add in the freshly remodeled Mariners and the AL East could be the most competitive division in baseball, even more so than the AL Central because lets be honest, the AL Central is about as exciting as a bowl of cold oatmeal.
Andrew : I'm gonna have to go with the Texas Rangers. Great pitching coach, solid offense (with some question marks because of injury-prone players), and a manager that's doing his best to live in the 80's. What's not to like?

AL Wildcard
Bert : Boston Redsox. I think Boston easily takes the wildcard and enters the post season with the second best record in the AL. The additions of Adrian Beltre and Mike Cameron will give Boston a huge boost on defense, not to mention Victor Martinez (hopefully) behind the plate on a regular basis. Also, if we get anything even remotely resembling the old David Ortiz I could look stupid picking my team to finish behind the Yankees.
Andrew : Boston Redsox. David Ortiz is probably done, but Mike Cameron is underrated everywhere he goes, and he's gonna be huge for them in that outfield and lineup. Don't forget they added Lackey, either, and Lester is one year older.

NL East
Bert : Philadelphia Phillies. I'm going to be very boring again here, but lets face it, the NL is boring. The Phillies will win the NL East with little effort for a number of reasons. Their roster is loaded with hitters and speed, and the addition of Roy Halladay will make their rotation extremely solid up front. If Jimmy Rollins and Brad Lidge return to past glory they could be extremely good and make another serious run at the World Series. On top of that, the NL East is a joke, and I think the Phillies will have to fall off the face of the earth to lose the division.
Andrew : Philadelphia Phillies will run away with this thing. Halladay, Howard, Werth... forget about it.

NL Central
Bert : St. Louis Cardinals. The Cardinals enjoy similar joke-division status, but they should feel the Cubs and Brewers breathing down their neck. I think a full season of Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday making pitchers crap their pants will be enough to propel the rest of their nameless roster, and knowing La Russa's history he could make a whole lot of lemonade out of the lemons taking the field. Plus, if Dave Duncan can turn Joel Piniero into a good pitcher he might make something out of Brad Penny.
Andrew : St. Louis Cardinals. I didn't love the Holliday signing, but whether he's aligned with that douchebag Boras or not, he's still the best outfielder (offensive, anyway) in the NL year in and year out. He'll give Pujols protection that he doesn't need to begin with, and I'm predicting that Ludwick will have a nice bounce-back year, provided he can do the impossible - for him - and stay healthy for 150 games. I'm also predicting big things out of Colby Rasmus this year; if I hadn't picked up Ludwick for $3, I was going to take Rasmus for a buck. Fantasy baseballers should watch his stats closely this season when it comes time to make some DL moves.

NL West
Bert : LA Dodgers. The Dodgers should be very solid this year, hopefully Manny Ramirez won't be coming off estrogen treatments again. The Dodgers are loaded with bats, gloves, and arms. Its hard to see them losing this division to anyone unless the Rockies score over 800 runs and seriously improve on defense.
Andrew : LA Dodgers. Great rotation, and a young lineup full of studs that is only going to get that much better this year.

NL Wildcard
Bert : Colorado Rockies. My only "I have no idea what will happen here" pick is the Rockies to win the wildcard. To be perfectly honest this could be Florida (Josh Johnson, Ricky Nolasco, Anibal Sanchez, and Chris Volstad could be amazing), Atlanta (Bobby Cox plus what could be a great rotation), NY Mets (Wright, Beltran, and possbly Reyes back), and even Chicago (Geovany Soto, Derreck Lee, Aramis Ramirez, and Alphonso Soriano could combine for a potent offense... or fall flat on their faces, or a tepid middle ground) since the NL is so weak. I'm only picking the Rockies because they have a young and talented core in one of the most putrid divisions in baseball. Plus, they actually seem to have some decent pitching for once, and in the NL West that could be just enough to jump past the rest of the NL. No matter what, I envision a boring team not that far over .500 sneaking in.
Andrew : I'm also bamboozled by this one, but I will go with the Atlanta Braves for some reason that is not entirely known to me. The Rockies are the logical pick, I think.

AL Division Series

Bert : NY Yankees over Minnestoa Twins, Boston Redsox over LA Angels. The Twins will scrape by all season, but most likely be gunned down by the Yankees. I'll actually be impressed if the Twins avoid a sweep. I think Boston wins the annual meeting with the Angels this time around, improved pitching and defense will give them an edge. The Boston rotation is too deep, and I'd like to hope they can win it in 3 or 4.
Andrew : NY Yankees over Chicago WhiteSox, Boston Redsox over Texas Rangers.

AL Championship

Bert : NY Yankees over Boston Red Sox. It pains me to call it this way, but the Yankees seem to have found some life. They seem to have developed some team chemistry that the 2004 & 2007 Redsox rode to the title, but Boston seems to have left their chemistry behind. I think this series is close, JD Drew strikes out looking, and Tim McCarver says something stupid.
Andrew : NY Yankees over Boston Red Sox. Everything Bert just said makes too much sense to go against.
NL Division Series
Bert : LA Dodgers over St. Louis Cardinals, Philadelphia Phillies over Colorado. The Dodgers should make quick work of the Mets, or whoever wanders into the wildcard. Brad Lidge just cannot escape Pujols, and if he doesn't recover from whatever is bothering him we should see at least one ninth inning implosion from him. I think the Cards find a way to make this close, but in the end the Phillies bats will carry them to the NLCS.
Andrew : St. Louis Cardinals over Atlanta Braves. Just like the good ol' days. LA Dodgers over the Philidelphia Phillies, just because the Division series results often make no sense.

NL Championship
Bert : LA Dodgers over Philadelphia Phillies. This could be a really entertaining series if the Dodgers live up to their potential. The Klayton Kershaw-Chad Billingsly vs. Roy Halladay-Cole Hamels match-up could be exciting, and Hamels is bound to fire up a fanbase with at least one ill advised comment. I think this series is very close, but the Dodgers bullpen and stud closer Johnathan Broxton tip this in LA's favor.
Andrew: St. Louis Cardinals over LA Dodgers. In a freak play, Holliday swing bunts the ball into his own nuts, but the Cardinals overcome this to win in 7.
World Series
Bert : NY Yankees over LA Dodgers. A classic match-up the media will have a field day with. Unless the Dodgers bullpen pitches lights out I see the Yankees clobbering them in 5, bemoaning the victory away from New York (I predict the AL winning the All-Star game, because it hasn't happened in a while I think the AL is due) and enjoying the boost in rival colored Yankees hat sales. I also see us getting even more annoyed by that Jay-Z song, and Tim McCarver will say something else stupid.
Andrew : St. Louis Cardinals over Yankers in 6. Just because this would be the greatest WS matchup and outcome I could imagine. I can't take these pre-season picks too seriously.

Cy Young (Favorite / Second)
Bert : NL - Roy Halladay / Tim Lincecum, Johnathan Broxton as a dark horse. I think Halladay feasts on pitchers and rides the Phillies offense to 20+ wins. AL - Felix Hernandez / Cliff Lee. Seattle's improved everything has to be worth a few more wins for both King Felix and Lee, but Felix gets the nod and probably has all the stats to wow voters. This could also be Jon Lester or CC Sabathia.
Andrew : NL - Halladay. Easiest prediction of this whole post. He'll win 25 games and post a sub-3 ERA and sub-1 WHIP. In fact, I think I should trade for him right now. AL - I like the Felix pick, too.

MVP predictions (Favorite / Second)
Bert : NL - *yawn* Albert Pujols / Matt Kemp. Pujols is a shoe in if he plays anything like he did last year, the man is an unstoppable hitting machine. Plus, if the Cardinals are any good they are going to rely on Pujols and Holliday for most of their offense. AL - Joe Mauer / Alex Rodriguez. Again, a boring pick, but if Mauer can stay healthy and match last year he could run away with this. A-Roid will commission another centaur painting, recover from being a cheater, bang Madonna, and be a solid at the plate and hot corner. Being the best player on the probable World Series champions is a great way to get votes, but he will probably suffer alot of media backlash.
Andrew : NL - Pujols. Duh. But Ethier will land in the top three in voting. AL - I have absolutely no idea. Ummmm... Mauer seems like a good bet.
Rookie Of The Year
Bert : AL - Brian Matusz, BAL, NL - Jason Heyward, ATL. This is a bit of a cheap pick since Matusz has logged some major league innings, but he was a few shy of shedding the 'rookie' tag for the 2010 season. I think a full season will land him the award, and maybe be a bright spot for the Orioles. I'm picking Jason Heyward because he is being heralded as the top prospect this year and has won a starting spot in Atlanta's outfield, but outside of him I can't think of anyone that jumps out at me.
Andrew : AL - Nolan Reimold, BAL; NL - Jason Heyward. Hey, they're two big bandwagons; there's room enough of both of 'em for one more.

Fantasy Baseball Post-Auction Autopsy

Dork Christmas is over, and now we get to tear through our rosters to figure out how much heartburn we are in for this year. Some of us came out much better than others, and some of us will have to live with paying $17 for Ichiro in a league that doesn't count runs. Andrew and i aren't overly excited about our rosters, but we definitely feel like we are in a good position to win the league. Wow, I can't believe I just said that and I have Rich Harden on my team... maybe I had more to drink that I thought.

We won't bore you with every pick, since the draft took about 6 hours, but we are set on going over our best/worst picks. Much like Matthew Berry's annual Love/Hate list it isn't about a pick being bad in general, its about the value paid. Lets take Jacoby Ellsbury (Optimator Man Crush) for $22, this is a repeat of the Ichiro situation mentioned earlier. Of all of the powerless OF who steal 30+ bases Ellsbury is definitely the best, but spending a whopping $22 for a .300 hitter who will steal between 50-70 bases (and do nothing else) isn't the greatest idea. The reverse is true for best picks, like $10 for Cole Hamels. He isn't the greatest pitcher out there, but for $10 he could be a serious steal (and was) and propel your team to the top. We broke down our picks for worst/best into the top three in no particular order, but some of the worst are significantly more putrid than others.

Worst : Hold your nose, these guys are going to drop a deuce on your fantasy season.
OF Nyjer Morgan (WAS) - $4. The only thing worse than spending $22 on a .300 hitter who steals 50-70 bases is spending money on a guy who does almost nothing at the plate (3-39 .307). Morgan's owners are basically paying $1 per 10 steals, and that is about all you can expect from him.
OF Vernon Wells (TOR) - $1. This is easy, paying anything for Wells is a huge mistake. Wells hasn't had a decent season since 2006 (32-106 .303), but he continues ripping off fantasy owners (not to mention the Blue jays) year after year.
2B Rickie Weeks (MIL) - $9. Hands down worst pick of the draft. I believe Brandon Phillips was available at this point, but someone elected Weeks and people bid on him! This is an indefensible move, at least Morgan showed some signs of life (Hit .351 once traded from Pirates to Nationals) and Wells is a professional con artist, but Weeks is just flat out horrible. Weeks is a career .247 hitter and his "best" season was 2008 (14-46 .234) which featured a seductive 66BB and 19SB. Bottom of the league here we come!

Thankfully Andrew and I didn't land any of the worst guys, but we didn't escape personal worsts. Andrew took on P Jason Frasor (TOR) for $1 hoping he turns into a solid closer, and due to the complex rules of our league I couldn't get Buster Posey for $1 and went with C Rod Barajas (NYM).


Pray you don't see one of these faces on your roster.

Best : These are the "How did he get X for that much?!" guys, you feel stupid for passing on them.
3B Chipper Jones (ATL) - $3. Jones is a career .300 hitter coming off a .264 stink bomb in 2009. He isn't the Chipper of old, but he should hit 20HR (only once since 1993 has he hit less than 20, and it was last year), and he was one of only five players to walk more than 100 times in 2009.
OF Ryan Ludwick (STL) - $3. 20HR and 90-100 RBI for $3?! This pick also doubles as Andrew's personal best.
1B Billy Butler (KC) - $1. Butler could turn out to be the steal of the draft, and I'm thankful he is on my team. How a guy who hammered out a 21-93 .301 last year fell through the cracks is beyond me, did I mention he is only 23? If Butler puts up a 30-100 .300 I may need to make room for a new Man Crush. This pick made up for losing Brad Hawpe to Andrew for $7.


A total of $7 for these guys?! Weeks went for $9, just think about that...

At first glance it looks like three teams in our league will be in the best position to win, but if the past is any indication all hell should break loose. I'm just happy I didn't spend all my money on pitchers that will spend most of the season on the DL with ailments I didn't know existed.